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An interesting little experiment in this weeks Opinium / Observer poll was that we asked people if their reason for voting Labour, for example, was to vote for Labour or vote against someone else.
Unfortunately not enough people (from a research perspective) said that they were mainly voting against someone else for us to properly look at who they're voting against but we can see what proportion of each party's voters said it was partly or mainly to vote against someone else:
Labour: 32%
Conservative: 25%
Lib Dem: 28%
UKIP: 32%
By comparison to the last time we had a Conservative prime minister, Labour's poll lead is a lot smaller and this is for two reasons. First, opinion polling is much better than it was in the 80s but more importantly, the fact that we have an almost multi-party system means that the Labour party is no longer receiving as many protest votes as it might have during its last period in opposition.
Still, the fact that the Labour figure is higher than that for either governing party shows why Labour's lead is liable to collapse every so often. If people are voting for you mainly to oppose someone else then it's hardly surprising that they're the quickest to desert if circumstances change.
Labels: polling
Given the centrality of currency issues to the debate in Scotland at the moment it's interesting to imagine how different, or maybe how similar, things would be if joining the Euro was a serious option for Scotland?
A quick Google came up with this from a few years ago when the SNP were divided on whether to offer a referendum on joining the Euro or just join the EU and accept it as part of the broader package of EU membership. That was only five years ago.
Imagine that there was no Eurozone crisis or that the referendum was happening a few years ago but somehow all other factors were the same. Would Yes Scotland be ahead because the post-UK currency didn't involve pinning the country's hopes on whether or not George Osborne was bluffing about a currency union but instead meant entering a currency union with Germany, France (and Greece)? Or would Better Together be ahead because, even though Scotland is more pro-EU than England, actually joining the Euro is a step too far even then and too much of a change given how much the SNP are trying to emphasise how things will stay the same?
The other hypothetical is that let's say that the referendum results in Scotland staying but by a margin less clear than the 60-40% split predicted by polls. Let's say that the Eurozone crisis ultimately resolves itself the way Angela Merkel is hoping (continued austerity in the bailout countries, nobody leaves the Eurozone, some tightening of EU controls over Eurozone country budgets) and that the SNP continue to be the dominant party in Scottish politics. Is it unrealistic not to expect another referendum in Scotland but this time with Euro membership a much more realistic option?
Even if Better Together win in September, I doubt we'll have to wait more than a decade for another vote.
Labels: Scotland
"Unelected bureaucrats", "Brussels Eurocrats" imposing their will on the British people against their wishes. Europe's democratic deficit is well established both academically and in popular culture and it's certainly one of the things that got mentioned most in the study I ran last year when we asked people what they least liked about the EU (alongside immigration).
Labels: Conservatives, Europe, Labour