Thoughts on the London Labour hustings

On Sunday I went to the London Labour hustings to see the various leadership candidates pitch themselves. Confusingly this took place at the same time as the pre-recorded Sunday Politics debate was being broadcast so there was a bit of a let-down that Andrew Neil wouldn't be there.

I went in with a couple of assumptions about Labour and the next few years:

1. Given the boundary changes and Labour's otherwise terrible position the best case scenario for the red team in 2020 is probably largest party in a hung parliament. More realistic aspirations include depriving the Tories of a majority and creating the type of hung parliament we thought would happen this year.
2. Austerity is to the 2010s as trade union law and privatisation were to the 1980s, an issue which splits the Labour party between activists and MPs but where the Conservatives (and much of the public) are broadly united. This makes any opposition an always precarious balance between irreconcilable factions and it is no surprise that Labour didn't re-enter office until the 1990s when one side of the major divisive issue had clearly won and a new consensus been established.

So, to the various candidates




Andy Burnham
The bulk of Andy Burnham's pitch seems to be that he loves the Labour party more than anyone else and somehow that love will inspire millions of people who didn't vote Labour to love it as well. Since 2011 he has had the easiest job in politics, Labour Shadow Health Secretary. It's a job where you rarely have to face an unfriendly crowd because a few choice lines about how the NHS is the pinnacle of civilization and needs to be protected from privatisation and you can guarantee a standing ovation.
The impression I got from this and the BBC Sunday Politics debate was that Burnham is decent, earnest and would find it tough going up in front of less sympathetic audiences or opponents against whom tacking left is ineffective.

Jeremy Corbyn
Corbyn talked about goals not methods, giving the impression he's the only person who believes in reducing poverty and inequality. I wonder if this is why he's doing so well among activists? The other candidates seem to have assumed that party members know they are committed to the same goals but differ on methods which means that they talk about methods while Corbyn gets to win the applause by talking about how awful poverty is. On his leaflets he talks about his opposition to Apartheid, presumably to separate himself from the pro-Apartheid faction of the Labour party?

Liz Kendall
This assumption that most Labour MPs agree about goals and differ on methods has most damaged Liz Kendall, as the ridiculous "Liz Kendall for Conservative leader" meme shows. In terms of that split mentioned above, Kendall is firmly on one side of it and, given that the George Osborne will be making the political weather until 2020, that's the side likely to prevail.
Kendall's problem is twofold. The first is that she's making the pitch for the 2020 election before winning the 2015 leadership contest in a party that is still very anti-austerity and wants to feel better about itself. She (perhaps fairly) assumed that being a member of the Labour party for 23 years, working for the party and being an MP for 5 years would convince people that she broadly believed in what the party stood for and that she wouldn't have to re-state this.
The second was that she hasn't been impressive enough in the campaign to overcome that. When your entire pitch is "I'm the only one who can win" you have to be more convincing and Kendall's lack of polish and ministerial experience has sometimes shown.

Yvette Cooper
In contrast, Yvette Cooper's experience did show quite a bit in the hustings. In response to a question about rail nationalisation, Corbyn is for it, Kendall opposed while Cooper talked about better regulation. The exact exchange stuck with me because Jeremy Corbyn talked about the principle of rail privatisation taking all of the profits and subsidies and delivering substandard service which no doubt articulated how most of the room felt about rail privatisation. But Cooper's response managed to couple that outrage with a sensible solution in a way that Kendall's didn't.
The word I most associated with Cooper after Sunday was "competent" and "stable". At the beginning of the leadership campaign I thought those were strikes against her but given what's happened since then it has rapidly become her chief selling point.

Do I think any of these candidates can win? If Labour were in a position to unite behind Kendall with a moderate platform that emphasised economic credibility delivering social justice then I think 2020 wouldn't look so hopeless for Labour. However, that's not remotely where the Labour party appears to be at the moment as the girl sat next to me shaking her head every time Kendall spoke suggests.

I honestly don't know what to think about the recent Corbyn surge though Matt Singh is bullish on his chances but at the moment my money would still be on Cooper winning on second preferences once Kendall is knocked out. At the moment that may be the best that moderates can hope for.


Deputies
I also stayed to watch the candidates for deputy leader give their pitches unlike, it seems, everyone who had been selected to ask a question.
In contrast to the main event there was a good deal of agreement about what the eventual winner should do (organise the party's campaigns, speak truth to power when the leader gets things wrong) so the only difference was in style. Briefly:

Creasy
Passionate and has her own 'brand' but sometimes seemed a bit too student-like

Bradshaw
Hammered the 'experience' and 'loyalty' cards, I came away impressed

Eagle
I confess I didn't really know why she was running to start with but came across as a fighter and was, interestingly, the only one to use the word "socialist"

Watson
Calm air of the front runner and it was a smart move to portray the deputy's role as that of a campaigner which neutralises his union (Falkirk) liabilities to a degree

Flint
Probably the most impressive with the best mix of passion and competence