Would the Scottish referendum be closer if the Euro was a more attractive option?
Given the centrality of currency issues to the debate in Scotland at the moment it's interesting to imagine how different, or maybe how similar, things would be if joining the Euro was a serious option for Scotland?
A quick Google came up with this from a few years ago when the SNP were divided on whether to offer a referendum on joining the Euro or just join the EU and accept it as part of the broader package of EU membership. That was only five years ago.
Imagine that there was no Eurozone crisis or that the referendum was happening a few years ago but somehow all other factors were the same. Would Yes Scotland be ahead because the post-UK currency didn't involve pinning the country's hopes on whether or not George Osborne was bluffing about a currency union but instead meant entering a currency union with Germany, France (and Greece)? Or would Better Together be ahead because, even though Scotland is more pro-EU than England, actually joining the Euro is a step too far even then and too much of a change given how much the SNP are trying to emphasise how things will stay the same?
The other hypothetical is that let's say that the referendum results in Scotland staying but by a margin less clear than the 60-40% split predicted by polls. Let's say that the Eurozone crisis ultimately resolves itself the way Angela Merkel is hoping (continued austerity in the bailout countries, nobody leaves the Eurozone, some tightening of EU controls over Eurozone country budgets) and that the SNP continue to be the dominant party in Scottish politics. Is it unrealistic not to expect another referendum in Scotland but this time with Euro membership a much more realistic option?
Even if Better Together win in September, I doubt we'll have to wait more than a decade for another vote.
Labels: Scotland

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