Has George Osborne single-handedly kept Britain in the EU?

Before David Cameron's game-changing-but-not-really-game-changing speech (details here) I put a couple of Tweets out:

Things we know about Cameron's migration speech 1: it won't be enough for Philip Hollobone or Peter Bone and the rest of the Tory 'outers'

— Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) November 28, 2014

Things we know about Cameron's migration speech 2: Labour will either say it was their idea or (shamefully) that it doesn't go far enough

— Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) November 28, 2014

Things we know about Cameron's migration speech 3: It will keep immigration at the top of the agenda which benefits nobody but Nigel Farage

— Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) November 28, 2014

Things we know about Cameron's migration speech 4: some scandal will happen before May forcing Cameron to make more concessions to the right

— Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) November 28, 2014

I'll check in with these predictions later on but to focus on the speech, the major news is that it's going to be about cutting in-work benefits rather than anything more restrictive (and illegal under EU law) like imposing an absolute cap or any sort of points system that would have been impossible to implement without the UK leaving the European Union.

It's not really a game-changer but it does set down a bit more clearly what form the 'renegotiation' will take and will no doubt calm the nerves of pro-Europeans (and businesses) who were afraid that Mr Cameron would be forced by backbench pressure to demand utterly unrealistic fundamental changes and then be forced to campaign for an exit when he failed to achieve them.

The problem Mr Cameron has always faced is that the gap between the minimum that the Conservative backbench 'awkward squad' will accept and the maximum that other EU states will give is unbridgeable. He was always going to have to make a choice between pragmatism and keeping the 'outists' happy and it looks like he's finally chosen the former.

Reports are that the Chancellor, George Osborne, is the one who spiked the possibility of an emergency brake or arbitrary cap on the number of EU migrants who can come to the UK in favour of a the cap on in-work benefits. As the master strategist, Mr Osborne has no doubt noticed that a central part of Labour's appeal to business is that EU membership would be safe under a Labour government but at risk under a Tory one. Today's speech, while obviously aimed at pacifying Tory backbenchers and appealing to Tory-UKIP defectors, will also be aimed at neutralising that advantage.

The Conservative leadership's hope was that this speech would dislodge immigration as an issue enough to be able to talk about the economy and make that the focus of their 2015 campaign. It remains to be seen whether this will be the case but, as my predictions show, I wouldn't count on it.