Follow up: more UKIP points

Two things to add to the earlier post I made on UKIP:

1. Something I forgot to include but is an interesting trend is that if UKIP are the 2010's version of the Lib Dems during the mid 2000's then one of the things they are definitely replicating is an ability to overcome the regional limitations of the big two parties. Namely the fact that the Conservative party is toxically unpopular in the north of England while Labour suffers from "Southern discomfort".
In a fascinating Economist feature on the north / south divide in England, it was striking how influential geography is on voting behaviour suggesting that the Labour north and Tory south are due to cultural differences as much as economic and ideological factors. In particular one thing that stuck with me was that well-off people in the north were more likely to vote Labour than poorer people in the south.
The Lib Dems in the south of England function in many ways as an outlet for people who have left wing views but live in areas where Labour have no chance of winning. UKIP's strong performances in by-elections in Rotherham and South Shields makes me think that the reverse may be happening in the north with UKIP becoming an outlet for people with conservative (albeit more socially than fiscally)  views in areas where the Conservatives could never do well. There are right wing people in the north just as there are left wing people in the south but the traditional Labour / Conservative two-party structure does not serve them, particularly when cultural entrenchment matters as much as more traditional economic factors. So other parties, without that cultural baggage, spring up to fill these gaps in the market.

2. Peter Kellner has a great post running through the possible scenarios for an EU referendum and concludes that if Labour match David Cameron's referendum offer then those who want to leave the EU are more likely to achieve it by putting Ed Miliband in Number 10 while those who want to stay should support David Cameron. He calls it the "EU referendum paradox" and makes me wish I'd thought of a catchy name for it when I pointed it out in November.