Obligatory "2012 in review" post

So it's that time of year when newspapers and websites fill the gap in actual news over Christmas by reminding us all of what happened in the year we're about to finish.

This is my (mini) attempt at something similar from a political polling perspective and for me 2012 (compared to this time in 2011) has really been about two things:

1. Ed Miliband has gone from being "that guys brother who accidentally became Labour leader" to possibly the most secure of the major party leaders.
While David Cameron and Nick Clegg both have to worry about "kings across the water" in the forms of Boris Johnson and Vince Cable, rumblings about Miliband's leadership have quietened down as his performances at PMQs improve and his lack of close ties with the Murdoch empire saw him immunised against the revelations of the Leveson Inquiry.
As the government (and David Cameron) have seen their ratings decline, Miliband's rise is more a case of looking good by comparison than any consequential achievements on his part. But after setbacks in 2011, Labour have performed the role of opposition effectively with by-election and local election victories as well as Miliband's well received "One Nation Labour" speech and other signs that the party is trying to put together a serious answer to the question "what would you do differently?"
This is also related to the more general point that since the Budget, Labour have opened up a traditional mid-term opposition lead of about 10 points. While Labour people should be a little nervous that their lead is only 10 points in a time of double dip recession and government screw-ups, it is at least an improvement on 2011 when the two main parties were much closer and, in the wake of David Cameron's EU veto in December 2011, the Tories actually pulled ahead briefly.
(There's a useful chart illustrating the change in approval ratings that I'll be adding as soon as I finish compiling it but the voting intention chart is here)

2. The (polling) rise of UKIP.
As the voting intention chart shows, UKIP started 2012 on something like 7% but they end it on just over twice that with 15% in the latest Opinium/Observer poll.

UKIP is an odd one. On the one hand they came in second in the 2009 European Parliament elections (and may come first in the 2014 round) with 16.5% of the vote, beating Labour and the Lib Dems into 3rd and 4th place respectively. Yet in the general election a year later, they were back down to 3% of the vote, no MPs and Nigel Farage failed to win Buckingham despite it being almost tailor made for a UKIP breakthrough.

It's tempting to think of the current UKIP surge as being fuelled by former Conservative voters disillusioned with the government's performance on Europe and other issues. The chart shows some correlation between the drop in the blue line and the rise in the purple one but while 2010 Conservative voters make up a large block of current UKIP supporters, they are not the majority.
Another explanation comes from (Lord) Michael Ashcroft. Say what you will about Lord Ashcroft, he does produce a lot of (sometimes useful) polling data and has conducted another of his super-sized jumbo polls on UKIP's threat to the Conservative party. The results suggest that UKIP considerers, from all parties, are driven by more than just the EU and are more generally dissatisfied with modern Britain in general.
Particular topics that come up tend to be immigration and political correctness as well as Europe with 80% of UKIP "considerers" agreeing with the statement that "UKIP seem to want to take Britain back to a time when things were done more sensibly".
With gay marriage set to become law and the census revealing that Britain is getting less religious and less white, UKIP seem to be turning into the vehicle for resisting these changes and this is probably quite a natural response given that the three main parties are all lead by metropolitan (social) liberals.

We'll have to wait and see whether UKIP have reached a natural peak or whether this surge will continue. With the EU likely to be in the news A LOT in 32013, my money is on the latter.

I tend to be a bit of a grinch when it comes to new year's eve (overcrowded bars and lots of spilt drinks made even worse by the fact that they cost twice as much as usual) so my evening is going to be spent with a can of Fosters and possibly crisps in a bowl if I really want to celebrate.
2012 has been a fairly decent year for me personally so here's hoping 2013 will be pretty decent as well.

Happy new year.